Reuters Reported Donald J. Trump Picked JD Vance as His Running Mate

Reuters reported on July 15, 2024, that Donald J. Trump selected Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. The report resolved Professor Jiang Xueqin’s prediction that Trump would pick Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential nominee.

Jiang made the call in May 2024 in “Geo-Strategy #5: Why Trump Will Win,” with moderate confidence and a timeline of August 2024, tied to the Republican convention. The prediction was specific: “Trump will pick Nikki Haley as his Vice President.”

What Happened

Reuters reported that Trump chose Vance, not Haley, as his running mate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. That outcome directly conflicts with Jiang’s forecast, which named Haley as the expected pick.

The automated fact-checker concluded that the Reuters report resolved the prediction as wrong. Following that report, prediction P002a has been recorded as wrong by the tracker.

The relevant source for the resolution is Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-jd-vance-running-mate-2024-07-15/

Track Record Context

This is the third wrong prediction among 21 resolved predictions in the tracker. Across 125 total tracked predictions, Jiang now has 8 confirmed predictions, 10 partially confirmed predictions and 3 wrong predictions, with 104 still pending or unverifiable. Counting partial confirmations as hits, the headline accuracy rate is 86% on the 21 resolved predictions.

That denominator remains small. A record of 18 confirmed or partially confirmed predictions out of 21 resolved predictions is informative, but most of the database has not yet resolved: 104 of 125 tracked predictions remain pending or unverifiable. The tracker currently includes 152 source lectures, 38 of which have been transcribed.

This prediction sits in the US Elections category. The live snapshot provided for this update does not state how many US Elections predictions remain pending, so this post does not assign a category-specific pending count.

What's Still Unknown

This resolution establishes only that Jiang’s specific Haley forecast did not happen. It does not evaluate his broader analysis of the 2024 election, Trump’s coalition, Haley’s political role or Vance’s subsequent effect on the campaign. Other predictions in the tracker remain pending or unverifiable until a named source reports facts that resolve them.

This blog post is updated each time the prediction's status changes. Read the full prediction set at jiangpredictions.com.

See the full prediction record at P002a on the tracker · All blog posts