EU–US Trade War of 2025 Confirms a Forecast by Professor Jiang Xueqin
DW.com reported on July 28, 2025, that the United States and the European Union fought an open trade war in 2025, after Washington imposed 25% steel and aluminum tariffs covering the EU in March and 20% tariffs on EU goods in April; the dispute was settled only by a July 2025 deal. The tracker recorded prediction P325 as confirmed on Sept. 25, 2026, updating it from not yet.
Professor Jiang Xueqin made the forecast in his Feb. 18, 2025, lecture "Civilization #31: The Oceanic Currents of History," according to the lecture record. Referring to Donald J. Trump, he said: "Trump has declared or is about to launch trade Wars against a lot of countries Canada Mexico quite possibly very quickly the the European Union." The tracker logged the call at medium confidence, in the Global Economy category, with a predicted timeline of soon after February 2025. The lecture is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIoYQBbBllk.
What Happened
The automated fact-check concluded that Canada and Mexico tariffs had already been declared when Mr. Jiang spoke in February 2025. The forward-looking part of his call was therefore the European Union, which he described as "quite possibly" facing trade action "very quickly."
DW.com reported that the United States imposed 25% steel and aluminum tariffs covering the EU in March 2025 and 20% tariffs on EU goods in April 2025. The two sides reached a deal in July 2025, but the tariff exchanges had already constituted an open trade war, according to DW.com.
Following that report, the tracker changed P325 from not_yet to confirmed. The prediction's text was: "The United States under Trump will launch trade wars against Canada, Mexico, and likely the European Union." The resolution covers the EU portion; the Canada and Mexico portions were already declared before the lecture, the automated fact-check concluded.
Track Record Context
P325 is Mr. Jiang's 18th confirmed prediction out of 400 tracked. The tracker lists 6 wrong predictions, 376 still pending or unverifiable, and 24 total resolved. Headline accuracy — confirmed as a share of confirmed plus wrong — is 75%.
That 75% figure is a small-sample statistic. It rests on 24 resolved calls, not 400, and the 376 pending or unverifiable predictions leave most of Mr. Jiang's record unsettled. Global Economy is the category for P325, and the tracker still lists 376 predictions as pending or unverifiable overall.
What's Still Unknown
The resolution establishes that the EU portion of Mr. Jiang's February 2025 call met the tracker's threshold for confirmed. It does not establish that he predicted the exact 25% steel and aluminum tariff rate, the 20% rate on EU goods, the April 2025 timing, or the July 2025 settlement. It also does not resolve the 376 predictions the tracker still lists as pending or unverifiable, including any other calls about trade policy. The Canada and Mexico portions were already declared when Mr. Jiang spoke, the automated fact-check concluded, so the newly resolved information is the EU escalation and its resolution.
This blog post is updated each time the prediction's status changes. Read the full prediction set at jiangpredictions.com.
See the full prediction record at P325 on the tracker · All blog posts