The Jiang Xueqin Wrong Predictions, Listed In Full
Jiang Xueqin has gotten five predictions wrong. As of July 27, 2026, the tracker holds 372 of his calls — drawn from 175 source lectures — and every one of those five misses appears below, with nothing held back. Sixteen predictions have been confirmed. The remaining 333 are still pending or set aside as unverifiable, which means most of his book remains open.
On the only measure that counts — proven true against proven false — his headline accuracy stands at 76 percent (16 of 21 resolved calls). That is a strong record, and stating it honestly requires stating the misses just as honestly.
The five wrong predictions
P002a — Trump picks Nikki Haley as vice president (predicted May 2024). Jiang called the former South Carolina governor his "primary pick," arguing she would draw suburban women and that her donor base was tied to anti-Iran lobbying. Donald Trump chose JD Vance instead. Even on this miss Jiang hedged: his companion call (P002b) flagged Vance as a strong alternative, which was confirmed when Trump named him at the July 2024 Republican convention.
P017 — Putin declares a nuclear umbrella over Iran (predicted May 2024). Jiang argued Vladimir Putin would publicly warn that "no one is allowed to use nuclear weapons" against Iran, casting himself as the man who saved humanity. That declaration never came. The striking detail is what Jiang got right around it: nuclear weapons were not used in the Iran war (P016, confirmed). The outcome he anticipated happened; the mechanism he named did not.
P040 — Muhammad Mokhber wins the June 2024 Iranian election (predicted May 2024). Jiang expected the IRGC-aligned vice president to take the presidency. Masoud Pezeshkian won the July runoff instead. This was a short-fuse, name-specific call with a two-month window — the kind that is easy to get wrong and impossible to walk back.
P064 — Marine Le Pen's party governs France within three months (predicted June 2024). After Emmanuel Macron's snap election, Jiang said the National Rally "could" take power by September. The party gained seats but did not form a government. The hedged phrasing ("could") is worth noting, but the tracker scores outcomes, not confidence.
P072 — A falling-out between China and Russia (predicted summer 2025). Jiang framed the partnership as brittle — Russia waging a "civilizational war for God" while "godless, materialistic" China earned its quiet contempt. A year on, the two governments remain strategically aligned. His parallel call that China would not meaningfully join the Iran conflict (P071) was confirmed; this one was not.
What the misses tell us
Read the Predictive History misses together and a pattern emerges. Four of the five cluster in a narrow stretch of mid-2024, when Jiang was pinning specific names and dates to fast-moving events: an American VP pick, an Iranian election, a French coalition. Short-timeline, name-specific calls are where forecasters of every stripe lose accuracy, and Jiang is no exception. The fifth (P072) is the outlier — a structural bet on a great-power split that has not arrived on the schedule he implied.
Equally telling is what is not in the wrong column. Jiang's largest body of work — the US-Iran war, where he stacked confirmed call after confirmed call (P011, P012, P015, P018, P020, P026, P088, P105) — has held up. The misses sit on the periphery of that core thesis, not at its center.
A small denominator, honestly stated
Five wrong out of 21 resolved is the snapshot, but it is a thin base. With 333 predictions still open, the headline figure will move — perhaps sharply — as the pending bets settle. The reason to publish every miss anyway is the reason this site exists: a forecaster's record is only credible if the failures sit beside the hits. The full, continuously updated list of Jiang Xueqin failed predictions lives at every wrong prediction, and it refreshes each time the news does.
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