Where to Watch Jiang Xueqin's Lectures: YouTube, Substack & More

Professor Jiang Xueqin publishes his geopolitical analysis primarily through video. The single best place to watch his lectures is his Predictive History channel on YouTube, found at youtube.com/@PredictiveHistory. Everything else listed below is either a written companion, a mirror, or an index built on top of those same talks.

The Predictive History YouTube channel

If you search for jiang xueqin youtube, the result you want is the @PredictiveHistory channel. That is his main outlet — long-form lectures on U.S.–China relations, the Iran conflict, and the structure of American global power, usually delivered in a single unedited take. New lectures appear regularly, and the back catalogue already runs to more than 150 episodes. This is the original source for nearly every jiang xueqin lectures online; the rest of the work discussed here is built almost entirely from transcripts of those videos.

For readers who want to support the channel directly, Jiang also accepts donations at buymeacoffee.com/predictivehistory.

Substack: the written companion

Jiang cross-posts longer-form written arguments to Substack at predictivehistory.substack.com. The posts there tend to expand on themes from the lectures rather than repeat them — useful when a video moves too fast to take notes. Substack is the closest thing to a primary text source; YouTube is the primary spoken source.

Watch by lecture: the by-video index here

Watching 150-plus lectures in order is a lot. This site maintains a by-video index that groups every tracked prediction under the specific lecture it came from, complete with timestamps. If you watched a particular talk and want to see which of its claims are still being checked against the news — or which have already come due — that page is the fastest way in. The system currently holds 157 source lectures, all transcribed, spanning the full run of the channel.

What those lectures have produced

Across those 157 transcribed lectures, the project has extracted 335 individual predictions. So far 29 have resolved — 14 confirmed, 11 partially confirmed, and 4 wrong — for a headline accuracy of 86%, where partial confirmations count as hits (the generous reading).

That denominator is small, and it should be read that way. The large majority of the corpus — 306 predictions — is still pending or unverifiable, many with timelines that run years into the future. An 86% hit rate on 29 resolved calls says something real about Jiang's near-term forecasting, but it is not a final scorecard.

Even so, several of the confirmed calls are the reason people seek out his lectures in the first place. His April 2024 prediction (P011) that the United States would go to war with Iran, the later call (P088) that a decapitation strike would kill Ayatollah Khamenei around the start of March 2026, and his April 2024 election call (P001) that Trump would win in 2024 all moved from pending to confirmed once the relevant events were reported by mainstream news outlets. So did the narrower calls — the failure of Shock and Awe doctrine against Iran (P015), the destruction of the Iranian navy (P105), and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz (P026).

A few remain in the partial column, where events tracked the direction of the prediction but stopped short of the full claim: the assertion that nuclear weapons would not be used in the Iran war (P016), and the broader framing of the U.S.–Iran conflict as World War III (P021). Those are exactly the calls worth rewatching in the original lecture, because the nuance lives in how Jiang phrases the prediction — not in the headline badge attached to it afterward.

How to use this site alongside the lectures

The practical workflow most readers settle into is simple: watch a lecture on YouTube, then pull up its entry in the by-video index to see which specific claims have been timestamped, categorized, and are being re-checked against the news each day. The lectures are the raw material; this tracker is the running tally of whether what was said is turning out to be right.

Browse all tracked predictions · Accuracy analysis · All blog posts