All predictions · Technology

P335
Neither the US nor China will successfully land on the moon by their stated 2030 deadline

What Jiang said

“I know the Americans and the Chinese are trying to get to the moon by 2030. My bet is they're not going to get there.”

Analysis

He dismisses both American and Chinese moon landing programs as pipe dreams, questioning how SpaceX justifies its multi-trillion dollar valuation when humanity still hasn't returned to the moon. He says he does not think it will ever happen.

Source lecture

• Live with Predictive History

Status history

• 2026-06-15 · Pending (claude_extract)

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