All predictions · Turkey

P390
Turkey and Israel will not go to war with each other despite their public conflict, because Turkey supplies Israel's oil.

What Jiang said

“as long as Turkey is providing oil to Israel, uh they're not going to go to war.”

Analysis

Jiang calls the Turkey-Israel conflict 'all theater,' arguing that as long as Turkey remains the source of Israel's oil supply, an actual war between the two is not going to happen.

Source lecture

• Global Meet-Up #2 (Los Angeles)

Status history

• 2026-08-19 · Pending (claude_extract)

Related predictions

• P389Turkey will join Saudi Arabia in a multinational coalition against the Houthis in Yemen, since Saudi Arabia cannot defend itself against them alone. Pending
• P391Democrats will win the House but fail to take the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections. Pending
• P392Democrats will pursue impeachment hearings against Trump after the midterms, but this will amount to political theater rather than a serious threat tied to the war. Pending
• P068Turkey will collapse as a nation-state after Erdogan leaves power Pending
• P067Turkey will be drawn into Ukraine war, collapse internally, allow Russia to take control Pending