All predictions · US Elections

P391
Democrats will win the House but fail to take the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections.

What Jiang said

“It's possible Democrats take the House, but they won't take the Senate.”

Analysis

Jiang says the midterms won't matter for the trajectory of the Iran war, but expects a split result — Democrats plausibly flipping the House while Republicans retain the Senate.

Source lecture

• Global Meet-Up #2 (Los Angeles)

Status history

• 2026-08-19 · Pending (claude_extract)

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