All predictions · Americas

P401
Alberta will hold and pass a referendum choosing independence from Canada (not joining the US, since it legally cannot).

What Jiang said

“I think what will happen is that one the people of Alberta will uh choose uh to to become independent. Okay, they won't join the United States because they cannot but they can choose to become independent. This referendum will pass”

Analysis

Jiang frames Alberta as the second of two 'limit tests' (after the Falklands) for whether his restructuring thesis holds; he expects Albertans to vote for independence rather than US statehood since annexation isn't legally available to them.

Source lecture

• Global Meet-Up #5 (Toronto)

Status history

• 2026-09-17 · Pending (claude_extract)

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