P364
China will interfere in Taiwanese and Japanese elections, though not in US national elections.

Status: Pending
Predicted
July 2026
Timeline
Ongoing/2026-2028
Category
China
Confidence
Medium

What Jiang said

“Yes, China does have the capacity to interfere in Taiwan elections. Yes, China does have the capacity to interfere in Japanese elections”

Analysis

He distinguishes capacity from intent, arguing China lacks both for US elections but has both for Taiwan and Japan.

Source lecture

Status history

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