All predictions · China

P374
Trump will deliberately prevent either China or Japan from securing Taiwan, instead letting both bid indefinitely for it to maximize demand for American energy, weapons, and financing.

What Jiang said

“He's trying to trick both into bidding as much as possible for Taiwan. Knowing neither will get Taiwan. So, they're going to bid indefinitely.”

Analysis

Jiang argues Trump, as a transactional dealmaker, is playing China and Japan against each other over Taiwan, knowing neither will actually obtain it, purely to drive both nations to keep buying American energy, weaponry, and Treasuries.

Source lecture

• Global Meet-Up #1 (Tokyo)

Status history

• 2026-07-18 · Pending (claude_extract)

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