All predictions · China

P411
China will not invade Taiwan.

What Jiang said

“How would that work? If China wants to take Taiwan, United States is not going to go defend Taiwan.”

Analysis

Jiang argues China is in a state of paralysis with no one actually in charge, making any decisive military action like a Taiwan invasion extremely unlikely because no leader has the authority to make such a contentious decision.

Source lecture

• Emergency Discussion #3

Status history

• 2026-09-26 · Pending (deepseek-v4.1-flash)

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