P413
The real danger of conflict is civil war and civil discord within the US and China, not a war between them.

Status: Pending
Predicted
September 2026
Timeline
Next 10-20 years
Category
Global Order
Confidence
High

What Jiang said

“The real conflict is civil discord and civil war within these two countries.”

Analysis

Jiang believes both countries have aging elites suppressing young people and struggling economies, creating conditions for internal conflict rather than international war.

Source lecture

Status history

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